Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf052…e10b sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+10%) realized +$92 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$185
other 21% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% +7.0%
≤90d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% +7.0%
all 9 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 56% +7.0%
10% -26.6% 44% -3.2%
15% -33.7% 33% -12.6%
20% -40.2% 11% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$51 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $128 $169 +$40 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $108 +$21 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $364 +$144 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $260 +$103 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND S Jun 16 $128 +$132 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $104 −$54 -52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $80 +$26 +32%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$74 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $129 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $108 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $364 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $260 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $51 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL 33¢ $49 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 67¢ $104 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $80 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 10¢ $21 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND S BUY 48¢ $128 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 8¢ $25 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.82 · official $163.84 · 18 history records