Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:12:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf054…e912 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$199 (-18%) realized −$200 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%45W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$74
14 days−$214
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$62
other 40% −$141
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -31.9% -38.4% 37% 37% -26.1%
≤30d 110 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 41% -27.5%
≤90d 110 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 41% -27.5%
all 110 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 41% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 41% -27.5%
10% -32.6% 35% -34.4%
15% -39.1% 33% -40.8%
20% -45.0% 25% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 65
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage12d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 −$60 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 +$2 +175%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +27%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 $0 +21%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$4 +21%
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$5 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $1 +$2 +238%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 +$5 +232%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$8 +77%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$2 +13%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$6 +43%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$8 +37%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 18¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 16h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $20 16h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 12¢ $1 26h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $2 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany $2 28h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $1 28h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $1 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 28h
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) BUY Mexico $1 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 46h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $1 46h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 82¢ $3 46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 85¢ $8 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 46h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 13¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 29¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.83 · official $16.83 (match) · 212 history records