Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf054…23be other 109 markets active 5h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$12
politics 22% −$5
sports 5% −$27
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 +5.1% -4.9% 10% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 85 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 5% -9.7%
all 108 -2.0% -11.4% 11% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 8% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 8% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 7% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage96d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $189 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$13 +105%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $73 $0 +1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $517 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $166 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $384 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $363 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 9h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $13 11d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $107 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 18d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 18d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $34 19d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.83 · official $107.83 (match) · 315 history records