Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf056…2a98 crypto 24 markets active 22h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-8%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$24
sports 18% −$30
other 10% −$7
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 46% -20.1%
≤30d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 46% -20.1%
≤90d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 46% -20.1%
all 24 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 42% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 42% -20.3%
10% -24.9% 29% -27.9%
15% -32.2% 25% -34.9%
20% -38.8% 17% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage289d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$7 -14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$15 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$11 +14%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET Sep 09 $27 −$7 -26%
Bengals vs. Browns Sep 07 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 12PM ET Sep 06 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9AM ET Sep 06 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8AM ET Sep 06 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 6AM ET Sep 06 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Sep 06 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2AM ET Sep 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Reds Sep 04 $8 +$6 +75%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Sep 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Sep 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $61 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $17 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 42¢ $27 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $23 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $17 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $54 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records