Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf057…216d other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+10%) realized +$107 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$88
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$299
crypto 4% −$44
sports 2% −$16
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -44.6% -49.8% 33% 33% +1.9%
≤30d 31 -32.7% -39.1% 42% 42% +9.3%
≤90d 31 -32.7% -39.1% 42% 42% +9.3%
all 31 -32.7% -39.1% 42% 42% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 42% +9.3%
10% -44.9% 32% -1.2%
15% -50.3% 29% -10.7%
20% -55.1% 23% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage9d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $152 $158 +$6 (+4%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 51¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $162 +$108 +67%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $111 +$62 +56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$36 -58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 +$52 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $91 +$24 +27%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 +$24 +52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $15 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $153 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.34 · official $180.34 (match) · 53 history records