Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf058…a5e9 sports 466 markets active 12h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%236W / 230L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$23
other 38% −$24
world 2% +$21
politics 0% −$11
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 50% -26.2%
≤30d 15 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 47% -35.7%
≤90d 46 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 43% -30.3%
all 466 +4.0% -5.9% 51% 51% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 51% -9.0%
10% -14.9% 50% -17.7%
15% -23.2% 49% -25.7%
20% -30.7% 46% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses236 / 230
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)466 / 466
History coverage158d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 466 Trades
no open positions (222 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$16 +307%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland May 19 $5 +$1 +20%
World Championships: Finland vs. USA May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 17 $7 +$6 +83%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Norway May 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 04 $4 +$5 +122%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 04 $5 +$4 +89%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 04 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-21? Apr 04 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $5 +$3 +59%
1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $5 +$4 +75%
Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5) Mar 21 $5 +$8 +152%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Elche CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Mar 20 $4 +$4 +96%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 20 $4 +$10 +245%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Mar 15 $4 +$10 +245%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $4 +$7 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 6d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway SELL Norway $3 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 18d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Norway $5 18d
World Championships: Finland vs. USA BUY USA 36¢ $5 30d
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 83¢ $5 30d
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia BUY Sweden 66¢ $5 30d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 54¢ $7 32d
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Norway BUY Slovakia 73¢ $10 32d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes $5 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 67d
Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 83d
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh BUY Roman Dolidze 25¢ $4 88d
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) BUY Juventus FC 53¢ $5 88d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 88d
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 88d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 88d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 716 history records