Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf05c…9caf weather 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized +$9 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%67W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$36
14 days+$61
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$120
sports 32% −$9
other 10% +$1
world 9% +$96
politics 2% +$3
crypto 2% +$29
culture 1% −$11
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 29% +13.3%
≤30d 36 +17.7% +6.5% 42% 42% +23.3%
≤90d 106 +3.5% -6.4% 42% 33% +1.1%
all 172 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 33% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 33% -8.8%
10% -21.0% 29% -17.5%
15% -28.6% 24% -25.5%
20% -35.6% 23% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses67 / 105
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)172 / 180
History coverage231d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+145%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 61¢ 18¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 46¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $40 +$38 +96%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +249%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $10 +$2 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$11 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$10 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 −$4 -74%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $10 +$11 +107%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 04 $10 −$2 -19%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 6? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 6? Apr 07 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6? Apr 07 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 6? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 6? Apr 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 6? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or higher on April 6? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $78 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 12h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 12h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $10 33h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 34h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $5 3d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.57 · official $74.58 (match) · 329 history records