Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf05e…04ce sports 1165 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,950 (-4%) realized −$1,939 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate69%802W / 360L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$36
14 days+$67
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$764
weather 35% −$856
crypto 8% −$465
other 1% +$9
politics 1% −$39
world 0% −$10
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.9% -12.1% 83% 22% -14.9%
≤30d 157 +1.2% -8.5% 73% 46% -4.1%
≤90d 703 -3.8% -12.9% 72% 41% -10.7%
all 1162 -5.9% -14.9% 69% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 39% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 26% -21.4%
15% -30.5% 17% -29.0%
20% -37.3% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,939
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses802 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1162 / 1165
History coverage119d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 28? No 98¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 264 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $23 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $10 +$10 +105%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $22 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $33 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $31 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $7 +$4 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $84 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $82 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $62 +$18 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 23 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $60 −$57 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $110 −$109 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $89 +$29 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $68 +$15 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $75 +$49 +65%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $400 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 +$8 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $403 +$110 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$88 +29%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $40 +$14 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$10 +338%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$14 +335%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $296 +$43 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $29 +$7 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$2 -44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $2 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $46 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $44 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $24 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $23 16h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 48¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 45¢ $14 18h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 59¢ $6 19h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 55¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $26 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 88¢ $23 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $31 35h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $60 44h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $26 44h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 2886 history records