Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf062…0257 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,300 (-17%) realized −$1,300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%36W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$48
14 days+$52
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,212
crypto 8% +$17
other 5% −$213
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -5.8%
≤30d 44 -34.4% -40.7% 36% 32% -9.8%
≤90d 92 +7.8% -2.4% 39% 37% -30.2%
all 92 +7.8% -2.4% 39% 37% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 37% -30.2%
10% -11.8% 35% -36.9%
15% -20.3% 26% -43.0%
20% -28.1% 23% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$59 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses36 / 56
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage47d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $201 −$37 -18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $90 +$126 +139%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $212 +$121 +57%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$72 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $101 −$32 -31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $201 −$84 -42%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$6 +28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$14 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $191 +$189 +99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $71 −$16 -23%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $108 −$107 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $101 +$51 +51%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $101 +$34 +33%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $91 −$90 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $51 +$13 +26%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $132 +$94 +71%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $51 −$40 -79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $162 −$160 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $10 +$13 +122%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $303 +$57 +19%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner May 17 $29 +$28 +96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $10 +$16 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 65¢ $165 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $216 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 97¢ $334 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $90 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $212 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 56¢ $69 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 48¢ $117 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 5d
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $201 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $301 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 8¢ $5 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 26¢ $88 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $102 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $1 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records