Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf065…d1df sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$672 (+2%) realized +$662 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate72%250W / 98L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$48
14 days+$2
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$606
other 2% −$99
politics 0% +$15
crypto 0% −$13
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.9% -30.2% 40% 40% -18.2%
≤30d 27 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 44% -6.6%
≤90d 77 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 51% +1.4%
all 348 -3.7% -12.8% 72% 55% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 55% -8.3%
10% -21.2% 26% -17.1%
15% -28.8% 13% -25.1%
20% -35.8% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$47 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$662
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses250 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)348 / 353
History coverage235d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $139 $138 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+50%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$39 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$36 +48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$25 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$36 +142%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$10 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$40 +197%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $91 +$33 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $20 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $231 −$15 -7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $201 +$54 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $311 +$54 +17%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $232 +$140 +61%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $121 −$120 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $511 +$12 +2%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $40 +$63 +158%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $180 +$153 +85%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $450 +$43 +10%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 11 $170 +$47 +27%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 10 $20 +$5 +23%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 10 $20 +$8 +42%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 10 $25 +$5 +21%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 10 $20 +$12 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $50 +$11 +23%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 02 $100 +$7 +7%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 02 $400 +$19 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $599 +$53 +9%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 31 $20 +$3 +16%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $20 +$8 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $3 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 23h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 24h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $50 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $15 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 60¢ $15 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $20 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 37¢ $20 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $37 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.54 · official $224.54 (match) · 1157 history records