Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf066…dd2c
crypto · 7 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$11,253 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,700 · open +$308
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,308
Realized+$10,700
Unrealized+$308
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage33d
Avg bet$5,357
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,398
7 days+$4,398
14 days+$10,700
30 days+$10,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $6,000 $6,308 +$308 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$97 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20,147 +$4,369 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11,000 +$6,302 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 70% +$4,678
crypto 30% +$6,330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $6,035 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 81¢ $18,161 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,986 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17,302 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1,023 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $9,977 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.8% -18.4% 60% 60% +9.9%
≤30d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 67% +21.2%
≤90d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 67% +21.2%
all 6 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 67% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 67% +21.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 50% +9.6%
15% -25.1% 50% -0.9%
20% -32.4% 33% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,308.31 · official $6,308.31 (match) · 13 history records