Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf067…5c6d other 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$1,165 (-5%) realized −$1,107 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%28W / 89L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$746
7 days+$677
14 days+$665
30 days−$1,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$6,428
sports 40% +$4,351
crypto 3% +$1,086
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +53.7% +39.1% 21% 21% +0.1%
≤30d 87 +26.9% +14.8% 22% 22% -21.7%
≤90d 117 +23.5% +11.7% 24% 24% -13.7%
all 117 +23.5% +11.7% 24% 24% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 24% -13.7%
10% +1.0% 24% -21.9%
15% -8.7% 24% -29.5%
20% -17.7% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$167 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$1,107
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses28 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions6
Markets (closed)117 / 181
History coverage63d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) France 37¢ 42¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 42¢ 32¢ $120 $93 −$27 (-23%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Iraq 23¢ 12¢ $90 $46 −$44 (-49%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $23 $27 +$3 (+14%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $51 +$306 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $50 −$49 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $26 +$447 +1737%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 +$69 +676%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $32 −$31 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $14 +$60 +416%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $59 −$58 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 +$246 +2392%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$323 +785%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $357 +$704 +197%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $100 +$330 +330%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $184 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $47 +$278 +596%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $406 +$445 +109%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $439 +$896 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 23¢ $72 36m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 37m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 11¢ $10 41m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 9¢ $21 43m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY 2¢ $5 44m
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY 3¢ $8 45m
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 13¢ $41 46m
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 27¢ $92 48m
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY 5¢ $16 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY 6¢ $19 51m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 29¢ $68 52m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 29¢ $20 54m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 22¢ $20 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $122 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Ir BUY 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Ir BUY 1¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verd BUY 5¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 22h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 26¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.95 · official $573.53 · 229 history records