Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf068…a9ad sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-5%) realized −$231 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%56W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days−$212
14 days−$213
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$171
other 24% −$352
economics 17% +$5
politics 10% +$1
world 3% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +23.9% +12.1% 53% 53% -14.1%
≤30d 31 +23.0% +11.3% 52% 52% -14.1%
≤90d 31 +23.0% +11.3% 52% 52% -14.1%
all 103 +4.5% -5.5% 54% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 51% -13.4%
10% -14.5% 50% -21.7%
15% -22.8% 47% -29.2%
20% -30.3% 36% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses56 / 47
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions7
Markets (closed)103 / 110
History coverage241d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 50¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $82 −$12 (-13%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$57 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $201 +$64 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $160 +$105 +66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$80 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $132 −$105 -79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$8 +77%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $88 +$54 +61%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $90 +$51 +56%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $68 +$82 +122%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$82 +794%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $97 +$103 +105%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $103 +$97 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 +$13 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$101 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $46 −$2 -4%
West Ham vs. Newcastle: O/U 2.5 Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $508 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $861 +$5 +1%
Spread: Minnesota United FC (-0.5) Oct 29 $1 $0 +43%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? Oct 28 $5 +$6 +127%
Spread: Atlético San Luis (-0.5) Oct 28 $1 +$1 +56%
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) Oct 27 $1 +$1 +54%
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-0.5) Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Juventus (-0.5) Oct 27 $11 +$8 +72%
Spread: FC Lorient (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 $0 +45%
Spread: Osasuna (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +59%
Spread: Everton (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Mallorca (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +75%
Spread: AJ Auxerre (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +75%
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +75%
Spread: Wolves (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Spread: Manchester City (-0.5) Oct 26 $1 +$1 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 31m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 36m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $100 52m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $34 54m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $72 55m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 58m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $64 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 98¢ $168 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 60¢ $98 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $266 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $100 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $100 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $102 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $97 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $100 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 34h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 34h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 95¢ $142 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $68 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.34 · official $489.36 (match) · 276 history records