Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf06b…791a
other · 141 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$20 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses86 / 51
Open positions4
Markets (closed)137 / 141
History coverage587d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 4 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 96¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+229%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 29? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 11 $3 +$10 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 29? Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 25? Apr 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 25? Apr 26 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 2 Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 2 Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Fe Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India - Who wins th Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 9? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Who Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 6? Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-29? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Clippers Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $14 −$14 -100%
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Com Apr 25 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Fe Mar 02 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February Mar 02 $1 +$2 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February Mar 02 $2 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February Mar 02 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Mar 02 $2 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February Mar 02 $3 +$1 +47%
Kings vs. Mavericks Mar 02 $5 +$14 +285%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-02-25? Feb 27 $7 +$10 +150%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 12 $12 +$6 +47%
Zion Williamson: Points O/U 21.5 Feb 12 $10 +$9 +89%
76ers vs. Hornets Feb 02 $46 +$36 +77%
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Jan 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% −$14
other 10% +$25
sports 9% +$17
weather 1% −$12
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 29? BUY No 1¢ $0 44d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 25? BUY No 54¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 25? BUY No 86¢ $5 49d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 27¢ $1 93d
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Com BUY Yes 96¢ $4 94d
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Who BUY ACT Meteors 94¢ $5 94d
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Com BUY No 89¢ $2 94d
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors - Who BUY ACT Meteors 90¢ $5 94d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 9? BUY No 49¢ $5 95d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma BUY No 66¢ $9 98d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 6? BUY No 72¢ $7 98d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 6? BUY No 72¢ $2 98d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 2 BUY No 64¢ $1 105d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February BUY No 52¢ $1 105d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February BUY No 60¢ $3 105d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February BUY No 47¢ $1 105d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February BUY No 68¢ $3 105d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe BUY No 60¢ $2 105d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Fe BUY No 67¢ $1 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 29% 29% -1.7%
≤30d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 29% 29% -1.7%
≤90d 38 -70.9% -73.7% 11% 11% -86.0%
all 137 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 54% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 54% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 31% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 18% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.87 · official $36.87 (match) · 291 history records