Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf06b…be6d crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,979 (-24%) realized −$3,197 · open −$3,782
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,084per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$19,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$176
14 days−$1,305
30 days−$3,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$4,786
finance 6% −$1,495
crypto 5% −$851
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +111.9% +91.7% 50% 50% -38.6%
≤30d 25 -51.0% -55.7% 24% 20% -82.8%
≤90d 25 -51.0% -55.7% 24% 20% -82.8%
all 25 -51.0% -55.7% 24% 20% -82.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 20% -82.8%
10% -59.9% 20% -84.5%
15% -63.8% 20% -86.0%
20% -67.4% 16% -87.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$186 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$19,153
Realized−$3,197
Unrealized−$3,782
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,084
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $13,975 $10,461 −$3,514 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $8,960 $8,692 −$268 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$28 +262%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 20 $537 −$204 -38%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -95%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $237 −$230 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,334 −$1,291 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $42 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$2 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $67 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $42 +$15 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $76 −$57 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $106 +$109 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 01 $213 −$188 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $129 −$125 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,986 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3,085 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,742 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,057 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $329 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $334 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? BUY Yes 3¢ $76 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 12d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $237 12d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 12d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? BUY Yes 3¢ $412 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $164 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $124 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $519 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 19d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $205 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $720 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $955 20d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 13¢ $376 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,153.25 · official $19,153.25 (match) · 137 history records