Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf06d…8416 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$94 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$62
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$29
tech 11% +$52
finance 2% −$14
weather 2% −$2
other 1% −$11
sports 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 50% +6.6%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% +8.0%
all 13 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% +8.0%
10% -19.2% 46% -2.3%
15% -27.0% 46% -11.8%
20% -34.2% 38% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage53d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 10¢ $175 $133 −$42 (-24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 12¢ $91 $74 −$17 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $39 $61 +$22 (+56%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 60¢ 41¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $40 +$22 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $51 +$41 +80%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $19 −$14 -73%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $50 +$18 +37%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $100 −$6 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $50 −$26 -51%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 22 $41 +$21 +52%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 22 $50 +$31 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? May 17 $9 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 11 $50 +$30 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11? May 10 $5 −$2 -41%
Madrid Open: Xinyu Wang vs Laura Samson May 04 $10 −$9 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $7 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $10 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $11 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $10 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No $8 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $16 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $18 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $40 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $62 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $78 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $40 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $0 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? SELL No $5 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No $8 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No $0 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 74¢ $11 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $14 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.51 · official $295.51 (match) · 70 history records