Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf070…ac55 sports 332 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318,231 (-13%) realized −$316,618 · open −$1,613
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%145W / 375L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,308per market
Trades / day97.6pace
Fees−$36,598est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$22,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$225,979
other 1% −$6,160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -89.9% -90.9% 4% 4% -83.8%
≤30d 514 -41.0% -46.6% 28% 28% -44.0%
≤90d 520 -41.7% -47.3% 28% 28% -44.4%
all 520 -41.7% -47.3% 28% 28% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.3% 28% -44.4%
10% -52.3% 28% -49.7%
15% ← realistic here -56.9% 27% -54.5%
20% -61.1% 24% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$9,395) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,207 vs −$6,390 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$22,373
Realized−$316,618
Unrealized−$1,613
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses145 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$36,598
Open positions2
Markets (closed)520 / 332
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$7,308
Trades / day97.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 40¢ $15,333 $13,500 −$1,833 (-12%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Las Vegas Aces 59¢ 60¢ $8,654 $8,874 +$220 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 371 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $1,148 −$1,148 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6,833 −$6,833 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $9,962 −$9,962 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8,141 −$8,141 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,361 −$5,361 -100%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) Jun 15 $11,111 −$11,111 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $9,747 −$9,747 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,390 −$3,390 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B Jun 15 $7,778 −$7,778 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13,953 −$13,953 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $7,304 −$7,304 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,588 −$7,588 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,393 −$1,393 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9,285 −$9,285 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $7,222 −$7,222 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $4,649 −$4,649 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8,309 −$8,309 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 15 $5,317 −$5,317 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,107 −$5,107 -100%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,329 −$4,618 -348%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 15 $9,365 −$9,365 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Jun 15 $2,667 −$2,667 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,162 −$5,162 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 15 $5,282 −$5,282 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,736 −$2,736 -100%
Goyang vs. LG Sakers Jun 15 $5,676 −$5,676 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4,613 −$4,613 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,905 −$1,905 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 15 $7,546 −$7,546 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,155 −$5,155 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,259 −$3,259 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 15 $11,200 −$11,200 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 15 $4,288 −$4,288 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,982 −$6,982 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,975 −$3,975 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,533 −$3,533 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $4,616 −$4,616 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,175 −$5,175 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Jun 15 $10,195 −$10,195 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 15 $7,221 −$7,221 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,111 −$3,111 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10,651 −$10,651 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,329 −$6,329 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,076 −$5,076 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,444 −$6,444 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 15 $12,820 −$12,820 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $4,129 −$4,129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $28,571 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15,582 2h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $8,760 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $26,988 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $18,869 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $33,299 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $8,049 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10,149 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6,468 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $10,285 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $268 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $488 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $529 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $529 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $388 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $388 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $388 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $311 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $465 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $311 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $529 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $465 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $465 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $311 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $698 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $311 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,373.44 · official $22,373.44 (match) · 3500 history records