Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf070…57b8 sports 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,497 (-11%) realized −$16,486 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%156W / 294L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2,364est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,201
7 days+$3,021
14 days+$6,367
30 days+$5,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$11,417
other 19% −$4,017
world 0% −$604
crypto 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.6% -6.3% 45% 42% +11.4%
≤30d 84 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 39% +7.2%
≤90d 450 -7.2% -16.0% 35% 34% -19.4%
all 450 -7.2% -16.0% 35% 34% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 34% -19.4%
10% -24.1% 34% -27.1%
15% -31.4% 33% -34.2%
20% -38.1% 32% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$289 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized−$16,486
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses156 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,364
Open positions1
Markets (closed)450 / 451
History coverage85d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $544 $533 −$11 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 286 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,271 +125%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $691 +$1,092 +158%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,015 +$1,023 +101%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $412 +$626 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 −$193 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $306 +$527 +172%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$377 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $340 +$476 +140%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $359 +$815 +227%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,679 −$350 -21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $308 −$239 -78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $486 −$480 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $197 −$192 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $373 −$366 -98%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: Both Teams t Jun 14 $305 +$385 +126%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 +$370 +121%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $196 −$192 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $210 −$206 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $175 +$410 +234%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$227 +112%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $191 −$188 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $179 −$175 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $636 +$25 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $167 +$149 +90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$167 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $152 +$166 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 −$138 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $318 −$313 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $491 −$486 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $196 +$297 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $289 −$284 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $385 −$379 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $607 −$600 -99%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $336 −$329 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $450 +$372 +83%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $153 +$354 +231%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$11 -11%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $159 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,017 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to BUY 44¢ $1,017 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,782 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,039 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $691 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $307 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $198 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $412 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,012 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $824 33h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $304 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $306 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $174 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $305 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,175 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $340 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $359 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $69 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $308 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $1,295 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,475 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $486 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.67 · official $532.67 (match) · 717 history records