Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf071…f817 weather 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-1%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%31W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$103
weather 20% +$3
crypto 8% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$56 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses31 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage175d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? Jun 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 27? May 26 $181 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 9? May 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 8? May 13 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on April 10? May 13 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on April 3? Apr 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $682 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 31 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 11? Mar 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 9? Mar 08 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8? Mar 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 6? Mar 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 6? Mar 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or below on March Mar 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C or below on March 3? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 3? Mar 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 1? Mar 03 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 1? Mar 03 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 1? Mar 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on February 2 Mar 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on February 28 Mar 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February Mar 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James be a 2026 NBA All-Star? Feb 23 $17 $0 +0%
Ledger IPO before 2027? Feb 15 $3,926 −$65 -2%
Epic Games IPO before 2027? Feb 14 $839 +$8 +1%
SHEIN IPO before 2027? Feb 10 $1,479 −$46 -3%
Will "Golden - HUNTR/X" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jan 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Jan 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025? Jan 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on January Jan 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C or higher on Janu Jan 14 $18 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 14 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $248 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $181 28d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $165 75d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $139 76d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $143 77d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $75 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $682 88d
Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $128 95d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $35 103d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $54 105d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 9? BUY No 99¢ $39 107d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $44 108d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $53 109d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $41 110d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or below on March BUY No 100¢ $39 110d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $47 112d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C or below on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $60 112d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 1? BUY No 99¢ $54 114d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $79 114d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $77 114d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February BUY No 100¢ $41 116d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on February 28 BUY No 100¢ $36 116d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $31 116d
Ledger IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 71¢ $150 127d
Ledger IPO before 2027? SELL No 28¢ $3 128d
Ledger IPO before 2027? SELL No 28¢ $7 128d
Ledger IPO before 2027? SELL No 28¢ $51 128d
Ledger IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $149 128d
Ledger IPO before 2027? BUY No 28¢ $60 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.57 · official $498.57 (match) · 231 history records