Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F0 0xf072…467a sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL −$54 (-4%) realized −$54 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$223per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 185d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+85.2%	+67.6%	67%	67%	+95.2%
≤30d	3	+85.2%	+67.6%	67%	67%	+95.2%
≤90d	3	+85.2%	+67.6%	67%	67%	+95.2%
all	6	+11.8%	+1.1%	50%	50%	+79.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.1%	50%	+79.9%
10%	-8.5%	33%	+62.7%
15%	-17.4%	33%	+47.0%
20%	-25.5%	33%	+32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$451 vs −$46 · ×9.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.83 per $1 lost it wins $9.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$54

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage185d

Avg bet$223

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$852	+$1,169	+137%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$123	+$171	+139%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$155	−$33	-21%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Dec 20	$99	+$11	+11%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Dec 20	$9	−$9	-96%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Dec 20	$100	−$96	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$2,021	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5	BUY Over	41¢	$852	2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$295	11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	41¢	$123	13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	10¢	$10	13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	10¢	$113	13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$155	15h
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	SELL Yes	99¢	$110	185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	185d
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	BUY Yes	89¢	$99	185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	BUY Yes	3¢	$9	185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	185d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records