Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf073…a12f other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$6
other 20% +$1
politics 8% +$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 21 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 10% -8.9%
all 60 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 7% -9.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage258d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $128 +$4 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $77 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $33 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $72 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $13 +$3 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $68 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $111 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $59 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $106 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Dec 30 $21 $0 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 20 $22 $0 -1%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? Oct 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 18 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $70 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $32 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $25 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $13 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $56 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $60 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $57 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $77 3d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $65 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $23 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records