Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf075…4bb7 weather 116 markets active 10h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$598 (-2%) realized −$604 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%93W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day70.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -1.3% -10.7% 98% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 95 -1.3% -10.7% 98% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 95 -1.3% -10.7% 98% 0% -11.2%
all 95 -1.3% -10.7% 98% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 0% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$425 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,825
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses93 / 2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)95 / 116
History coverage6d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day70.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $450 $451 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 100¢ 95¢ $400 $382 −$18 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $350 $355 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $332 $333 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $311 $310 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $259 $261 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $218 $220 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 100°F or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 17 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $450 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $205 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $450 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $450 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $84 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $450 −$450 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 16 $400 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $399 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $193 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $450 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $450 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $450 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $171 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $450 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $450 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $75 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $130 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $272 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $300 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $66 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $59 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $80 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $48 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $101 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $41 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $26 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $52 16h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $185 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $104 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $65 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $350 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $98 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $98 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,824.72 · official $5,824.74 (match) · 547 history records