Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf077…748a crypto 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,450 (-9%) realized −$1,450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%145W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$998
14 days+$1,099
30 days+$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$157
sports 16% −$2,220
other 14% +$388
politics 3% +$474
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +10.5% -0.1% 68% 63% +0.0%
≤30d 185 +15.5% +4.5% 68% 63% +0.7%
≤90d 187 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 63% -1.2%
all 232 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 58% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 58% -17.8%
10% -9.8% 50% -25.7%
15% -18.6% 41% -32.9%
20% -26.5% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$67 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses145 / 87
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 241
History coverage611d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 18 $50 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $65 +$103 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$23 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +55%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $45 +$42 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +15%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 3h
Canada to win the second half? SELL Yes 94¢ $12 14h
Canada to win the second half? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 14h
Canada to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 18h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $65 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $70 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 543 history records