Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf079…874d other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$805 (-6%) realized −$832 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$103
14 days+$135
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$285
politics 12% −$479
crypto 4% +$35
sports 1% −$176
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 50% +0.9%
≤30d 9 -33.3% -39.7% 44% 33% -11.0%
≤90d 10 -26.8% -33.7% 50% 40% -4.7%
all 48 -15.9% -23.9% 42% 35% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 35% -17.2%
10% -31.2% 27% -25.1%
15% -37.8% 25% -32.4%
20% -43.9% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$109 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$1,785
Realized−$832
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)48 / 55
History coverage540d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $1,219 $1,175 −$44 (-4%)
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $455 $508 +$53 (+12%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+12%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 71¢ $31 $45 +$14 (+46%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 22 $795 +$174 +22%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$71 -69%
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $295 +$33 +11%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $31 +$40 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $23 −$22 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $18 −$17 -96%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$34 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $205 −$201 -98%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $498 +$162 +32%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 22 $1,000 +$31 +3%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 22 $1,999 −$224 -11%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 15 $900 −$54 -6%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 12 $999 +$407 +41%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $200 −$193 -96%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $400 −$221 -55%
Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 07 $35 −$35 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $72 −$53 -74%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 23 $244 +$38 +16%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Sep 19 $195 +$37 +19%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 30? Sep 16 $7 +$7 +100%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 17 $5 +$2 +41%
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 08 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $294 −$228 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4 AM ET Jun 12 $150 −$127 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3 AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1 PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11 AM ET Jun 11 $78 +$74 +96%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? Jun 11 $50 −$38 -76%
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? Jun 03 $309 +$722 +233%
OpenSea airdrop before April? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 13-19? May 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? May 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Tether insolvent in 2025? May 14 $5 $0 +3%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? May 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 26 $49 +$22 +45%
Will Berachain's FDV be $3-5b 1 day after launch? Feb 07 $20 +$79 +396%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19? Jan 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-18? Jan 18 $20 +$32 +161%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-18? Jan 18 $30 +$14 +47%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $498 48m
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $146 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $134 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 79¢ $46 5h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 69¢ $11 46h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $114 46h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $199 46h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 63¢ $13 46h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 58¢ $60 47h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 47h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $545 2d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $7 2d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $13 2d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $402 2d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $97 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 3d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 5d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $287 5d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 5d
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 11d
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $328 11d
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 12d
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,785.36 · official $1,785.36 (match) · 149 history records