Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf079…ca73 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-14%) realized −$125 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$58
politics 10% −$100
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -23.8% -31.0% 18% 18% -56.4%
all 11 -23.8% -31.0% 18% 18% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 18% -56.4%
10% -37.6% 18% -60.6%
15% -43.7% 18% -64.4%
20% -49.2% 9% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage51d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $665 $647 −$18 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 +$42 +406%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $101 −$45 -44%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $50 −$5 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $38 −$13 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $647 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $45 48d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $45 48d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 49d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 49d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 49d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $25 49d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 51d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 51d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 51d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 51d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 51d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 51d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 51d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 51d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 51d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.14 · official $647.14 (match) · 29 history records