Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F0 0xf07c…a9b8 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,386 (-32%) realized −$2,362 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$370per market

Trades / day81.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-25.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-17.5%	-25.3%	26%	26%	-43.0%
≤30d	19	-17.5%	-25.3%	26%	26%	-43.0%
≤90d	19	-17.5%	-25.3%	26%	26%	-43.0%
all	19	-17.5%	-25.3%	26%	26%	-43.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover81.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.3%	26%	-43.0%
10% ← realistic here	-32.5%	26%	-48.4%
15%	-39.0%	26%	-53.4%
20%	-45.0%	21%	-58.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$559) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -65% → late +25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$435 vs −$324 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$2,362

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$370

Trades / day81.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	18¢	0¢	$25	$1	−$24 (-97%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 21	$52	+$25	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 21	$158	+$546	+345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 21	$717	−$186	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 21	$495	−$25	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 21	$159	−$150	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 21	$184	−$184	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 21	$559	+$397	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 21	$156	−$150	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 21	$67	+$79	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 21	$677	−$677	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 21	$525	+$1,127	+215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 21	$315	−$300	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 21	$1,123	−$1,076	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 21	$835	−$800	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 21	$316	−$300	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 21	$472	−$150	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 21	$277	−$263	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 21	$184	−$175	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 21	$104	−$100	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$26	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$77	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$26	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$53	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$53	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$53	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$151	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$151	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$152	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$52	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$52	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$158	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$27	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$209	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$670	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$156	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$156	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$156	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$159	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$956	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$156	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$157	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$89	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$157	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$27	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$53	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$53	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$52	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$156	42m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $24.31 · 87 history records