Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf083…22b0 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%68W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$143
14 days−$859
30 days−$859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$74
sports 35% −$199
world 14% −$453
other 7% −$55
finance 6% +$762
economics 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -55.4% -59.7% 17% 17% -25.8%
≤30d 57 -77.5% -79.6% 7% 7% -54.9%
≤90d 84 -79.3% -81.2% 8% 6% -59.0%
all 154 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 42% -10.8%
10% -17.5% 42% -19.3%
15% -25.5% 40% -27.1%
20% -32.8% 40% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses68 / 86
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage119d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $148 +$85 +57%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $245 −$154 -63%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $67 −$67 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $25 −$24 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $48 −$40 -84%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $70 −$22 -31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $108 +$166 +155%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $52 −$32 -62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $18 −$6 -33%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 −$7 -38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $24 −$14 -59%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$35 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 51¢ $232 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 21¢ $91 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $84 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $13 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $84 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $97 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $40 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $67 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $25 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $15 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $3 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $22 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $16 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $54 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 486 history records