Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf08b…2c37
crypto · 91 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$92 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)72 / 91
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 19 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+367%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 66¢ 67¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? No 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 56¢ 74¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 37¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$21 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$90
other 12% +$1
sports 10% −$9
politics 4% −$9
tech 4% −$13
world 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 50m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $4 24h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 24h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el BUY Yes 37¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -41.9% -47.5% 24% 21% -40.2%
≤30d 72 -41.9% -47.5% 24% 21% -40.2%
≤90d 72 -41.9% -47.5% 24% 21% -40.2%
all 72 -41.9% -47.5% 24% 21% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.5% 21% -40.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 19% -45.9%
15% -57.1% 18% -51.1%
20% -61.3% 18% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.33 · official $77.33 (match) · 125 history records