Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf08c…91e9 weather 693 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,337 (+3%) realized +$1,987 · open +$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%633W / 51L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$424
14 days−$74
30 days+$2,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% +$164
other 12% +$1,142
sports 4% −$205
world 4% +$330
crypto 2% +$174
politics 2% −$52
tech 2% +$623
finance 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +6.3% -3.8% 89% 9% -2.4%
≤30d 341 +7.4% -2.8% 91% 8% -5.7%
≤90d 684 +3.3% -6.5% 93% 7% -8.0%
all 684 +3.3% -6.5% 93% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 7% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 6% -16.8%
15% -23.6% 5% -24.8%
20% -31.1% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$62 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,865
Realized+$1,987
Unrealized+$350
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses633 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions9
Markets (closed)684 / 693
History coverage50d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 12¢ $459 $542 +$83 (+18%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 26¢ $195 $290 +$95 (+49%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $246 $256 +$11 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 21¢ 27¢ $152 $196 +$44 (+29%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? No 37¢ 94¢ $66 $170 +$104 (+157%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $119 $133 +$15 (+12%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $178 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$19 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $53 −$38 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $96 +$5 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$28 +55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $259 +$29 +11%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $158 +$439 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $198 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $198 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 14m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $178 25m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $7 49m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $41 50m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $38 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $8 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $12 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $3 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $8 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $8 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $7 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $9 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $9 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $17 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $8 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $8 7h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $39 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $8 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,865.40 · official $1,865.40 (match) · 2175 history records