Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf08f…8840 world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$553 (+131%) realized +$589 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$34
other 26% −$6
politics 24% +$609
tech 7% $0
finance 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+81.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +608.8% +541.3% 100% 100% +541.3%
≤30d 1 +608.8% +541.3% 100% 100% +541.3%
≤90d 5 +100.6% +81.5% 40% 40% +281.6%
all 5 +100.6% +81.5% 40% 40% +281.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.5% 40% +281.6%
10% +64.1% 40% +245.1%
15% +48.3% 40% +211.7%
20% +33.7% 40% +181.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +322% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +322% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$324 vs −$21 · ×15.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.45 per $1 lost it wins $10.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$589
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage88d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $77 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $100 +$609 +609%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $20 +$39 +194%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.30 · official $200.30 (match) · 56 history records