Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf08f…477e crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-2%) realized −$181 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%94W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$192
14 days−$192
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$285
other 46% −$231
sports 4% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 35% -13.4%
≤30d 28 -2.9% -12.1% 54% 36% -13.7%
≤90d 200 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 36% -14.6%
all 200 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 36% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -14.6%
10% -22.7% 28% -22.8%
15% -30.2% 22% -30.3%
20% -37.0% 16% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses94 / 106
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)200 / 202
History coverage41d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $135 $132 −$3 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $124 +$14 +12%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 +$12 +10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 −$4 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $109 +$8 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 +$6 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$18 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $195 +$10 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$14 -27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 −$6 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $148 −$31 -21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$56 -27%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $169 +$34 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 +$36 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$28 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$11 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $252 −$137 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $403 −$151 -38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $350 +$53 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $164 +$186 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $393 −$229 -58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $485 −$92 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $333 +$154 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $33 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -90%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $81 −$1 -2%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 13 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 13 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 13 $10 −$6 -61%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 13 $10 +$4 +44%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 13 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 13 $10 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $9 −$5 -54%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 13 $10 −$3 -27%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 13 $10 −$2 -23%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $138 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $138 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $124 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $124 4h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $112 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $114 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $117 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $117 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $109 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 95¢ $110 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $103 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 98¢ $104 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $100 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 98¢ $100 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $89 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $89 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $106 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $107 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $98 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $93 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $38 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $110 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $117 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $116 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 72¢ $148 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.04 · official $134.04 (match) · 472 history records