Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf097…c6c3 crypto 905 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$337 (+5%) realized +$609 · open −$272
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%392W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$73
14 days−$27
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$519
sports 28% −$210
crypto 26% −$236
other 3% +$272
economics 1% −$2
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.4% -21.6% 14% 14% -29.5%
≤30d 35 -26.4% -33.4% 26% 14% -14.4%
≤90d 140 -22.5% -29.8% 42% 39% -16.2%
all 897 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 43% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 43% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 39% -24.3%
15% -33.0% 23% -31.6%
20% -39.6% 21% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$742
Realized+$609
Unrealized−$272
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses392 / 505
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)897 / 905
History coverage115d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 45¢ 96¢ $306 $645 +$338 (+110%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $38 $18 −$19 (-51%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 65¢ $247 $17 −$230 (-93%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 21¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-80%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 45¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 38¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 18¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $70 −$2 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $163 −$22 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $33 −$25 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$6 +245%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $62 −$29 -47%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $27 +$48 +179%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $389 −$147 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $58 −$50 -86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $59 +$1 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $59 −$43 -73%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $462 −$79 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $188 +$274 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $254 −$11 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $188 +$68 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $38 −$8 -22%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $165 −$6 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $67 −$29 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $145 −$65 -45%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $67 +$1 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $2 +$6 +257%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $154 −$49 -32%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $130 −$26 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $32 +$1 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez May 25 $30 −$4 -14%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $9 −$6 -67%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? May 25 $222 −$35 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1,079 +$42 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $34 −$3 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $110 −$4 -3%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $30 +$1 +3%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $15 −$1 -5%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 03 $2 −$2 -83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 03 $31 −$8 -26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 +$1 +23%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $58 −$34 -59%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $15 +$6 +41%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $13 $0 -3%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $9 −$1 -8%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $157 −$30 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 3m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 77¢ $68 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $12 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $23 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $23 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $12 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 32¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 32¢ $10 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 32¢ $3 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 32¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 32¢ $4 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 32¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 31¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 31¢ $9 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 30¢ $2 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 30¢ $4 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 30¢ $9 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 29¢ $1 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 29¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $164 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.42 · official $742.42 (match) · 3069 history records