Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf09b…c7f5 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,588 (-13%) realized −$2,572 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%38W / 1L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$2,602
crypto 46% −$3
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 39 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -23.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -30.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -37.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2,603 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$2,587
Realized−$2,572
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses38 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage618d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1,100 $1,094 −$6 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $920 $912 −$8 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $583 $581 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $311 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,286 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,394 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on September 12? Feb 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120,000 on September 12? Feb 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Feb 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Green Party win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Jun 05 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $563 +$2 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $561 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,041 −$2,603 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $583 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $920 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,286 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $311 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,394 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,200 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 101d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $65 101d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 101d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $43 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $14 125d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 125d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 125d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 125d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 96¢ $30 282d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 99¢ $20 282d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 282d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $19 282d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 99¢ $31 282d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 99¢ $27 282d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 282d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120,000 on September 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 282d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on September 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 282d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $7 282d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $8 282d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,586.77 · official $2,586.77 (match) · 83 history records