Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf09b…2101 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-3%) realized −$102 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$108
sports 42% −$129
finance 4% +$4
world 2% $0
politics 2% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -21.7%
≤30d 3 -7.2% -16.1% 67% 33% -21.4%
≤90d 14 -44.2% -49.5% 29% 21% -54.0%
all 33 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 33% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 33% -11.3%
10% -27.5% 33% -19.7%
15% -34.5% 30% -27.5%
20% -40.9% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$105 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$1,030
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage195d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $998 $859 −$140 (-14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 37¢ $192 $149 −$43 (-22%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 25¢ 16¢ $33 $22 −$11 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $104 +$76 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 $0 +5%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 17 $93 −$92 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $112 −$112 -100%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $188 +$89 +47%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $150 −$150 -100%
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $247 −$201 -82%
Málaga CF vs. CD Leganés: Both Teams to Score Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $198 −$198 -100%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) Mar 28 $40 −$3 -7%
Scotland vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Mar 28 $157 −$48 -30%
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $135 +$102 +75%
Slovakia vs. Kosovo: Both Teams to Score Mar 26 $126 +$154 +122%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $360 +$4 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $98 −$95 -97%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $26 +$1 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $381 +$209 +55%
Cádiz CF vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Mar 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Cádiz CF vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $100 +$150 +150%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 $919 −$88 -10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $500 +$281 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 14 $320 +$180 +56%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 17 $47 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $1,899 +$6 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $78 +$21 +26%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Feb 01 $57 +$21 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $33 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $195 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 43¢ $153 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $104 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $105 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 41¢ $102 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $812 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $182 17d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 25d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 25d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $120 39d
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $93 39d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 56¢ $112 67d
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Mateusz Gamrot 68¢ $188 75d
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $46 86d
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 86d
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 86d
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 86d
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $111 86d
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $60 86d
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $187 86d
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) SELL Málaga CF 25¢ $38 89d
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) BUY Málaga CF 27¢ $0 89d
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) BUY Málaga CF 27¢ $25 89d
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) BUY Málaga CF 27¢ $15 89d
Málaga CF vs. CD Leganés: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 89d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $198 89d
Scotland vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $109 89d
Scotland vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $15 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.72 · official $1,029.71 (match) · 137 history records