Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0a0…7fe5 other 135 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$10
politics 20% −$4
sports 15% +$14
world 15% −$10
finance 9% −$3
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% +$8
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 16 +241.3% +208.8% 19% 12% -9.9%
≤90d 95 +60.0% +44.8% 4% 3% -9.7%
all 135 +42.0% +28.5% 3% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 2% -9.7%
10% +16.2% 2% -18.3%
15% +4.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -5.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×26.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage92d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $103 −$7 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$5 +16%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $8 $0 -4%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $16 −$1 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $30 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $16 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 11 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $198 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $20 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $45 +$19 +42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $234 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $210 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $331 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $113 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $17 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 10 $2,132 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $309 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $11 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $14 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $12 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $13 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $16 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $15 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $15 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $16 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $19 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $20 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $20 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 96¢ $29 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $12 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $7 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $1 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $12 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1402 history records