Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0a0…705b other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,009 (-2%) realized −$3,009 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,074per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$65
other 38% −$214
sports 12% −$2,715
world 3% −$2
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$27
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -19.0% -26.7% 7% 1% -12.6%
all 128 -9.0% -17.7% 16% 5% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 5% -11.5%
10% -25.6% 5% -20.0%
15% -32.8% 4% -27.7%
20% -39.3% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,542) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$31 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,506
Realized−$3,009
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,074
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $817 $818 +$0 (+0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $689 $688 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,840 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $917 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,827 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $375 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $540 +$1 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,728 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $881 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,324 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,938 −$3 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $331 +$1 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $800 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $493 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $598 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,071 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,357 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,390 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,349 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,112 −$2 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $689 53m
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $818 26h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,276 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,278 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,371 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,373 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,277 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,279 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,275 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,430 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,103 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,105 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $916 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $917 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,175 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,177 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $996 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $997 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $668 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $669 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $704 21d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $706 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,506.00 · official $1,506.00 (match) · 404 history records