Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0a1…50fb other 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$8
crypto 6% −$3
world 4% −$20
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage136d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $134 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $981 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $606 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $331 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $207 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $635 −$2 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $373 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $393 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $213 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $313 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 10h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $47 11h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $47 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 14h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 22h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 32h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 42h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.49 · official $46.49 (match) · 1428 history records