Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

F0 0xf0a2…b58e sports 24 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$482 (+40%) realized +$482 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%6W / 17L

Drawdown39%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)+10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+22.1%	+10.4%	26%	26%	+27.6%
≤30d	23	+22.1%	+10.4%	26%	26%	+27.6%
≤90d	23	+22.1%	+10.4%	26%	26%	+27.6%
all	23	+22.1%	+10.4%	26%	26%	+27.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.4%	26%	+27.6%
10%	-0.1%	26%	+15.3%
15%	-9.8%	26%	+4.2%
20%	-18.6%	26%	-6.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$196 vs −$42 · ×4.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$482

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses6 / 17

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage6d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown39%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$32	−$31	-97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$38	−$37	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$38	−$37	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$38	−$37	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$116	−$113	-97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$35	+$82	+238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$37	−$36	-98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$38	−$37	-98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$50	−$49	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$38	+$266	+704%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$38	−$38	-98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$39	−$38	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$40	−$39	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$79	+$302	+383%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$30	−$29	-97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$28	+$82	+291%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$37	−$36	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$32	−$31	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$38	−$38	-98%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$43	−$42	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$221	+$262	+119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$39	+$183	+473%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5	Jun 14	$39	−$38	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	12¢	$32	8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5	BUY Over	43¢	$38	13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5	BUY Over	24¢	$38	13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	14¢	$38	17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	11¢	$116	35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$35	40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$37	43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	15¢	$38	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5	BUY Over	15¢	$50	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$304	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	12¢	$38	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	40¢	$38	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	15¢	$39	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	13¢	$40	3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$381	3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	20¢	$79	3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	7¢	$30	3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	12¢	$111	4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	3¢	$28	4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5	BUY Over	28¢	$37	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$32	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	BUY Over	45¢	$38	4d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	43¢	$43	5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$221	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	SELL Over	100¢	$221	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	17¢	$39	5d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5	BUY Yes	51¢	$39	6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	39¢	$38	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records