Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0a3…989b other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,870 (-2%) realized −$1,871 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$626per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$332
politics 36% −$33
sports 12% −$1,517
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% +$2
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -6.6% -15.5% 16% 8% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 8% -11.7%
10% -23.6% 8% -20.2%
15% -30.9% 7% -27.9%
20% -37.7% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$869) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,042
Realized−$1,871
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage135d
Avg bet$626
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $530 $531 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $512 $512 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,410 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $267 +$2 +1%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,854 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,846 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $711 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $380 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $308 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,401 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $857 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,946 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $661 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $674 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $351 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,335 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 11 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,448 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $2,668 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $405 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $512 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $509 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $509 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $508 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $513 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $514 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $514 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $515 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $530 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $561 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $561 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $778 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $779 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $778 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $779 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $779 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $780 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $777 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $778 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $649 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $650 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $642 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $643 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 22d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 22d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 22d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $717 23d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $719 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.31 · official $1,042.31 (match) · 389 history records