Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf0a3…4d0d
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$196
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 6 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% $0
other 44% −$1
crypto 10% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $37 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.59 · official $195.59 (match) · 12 history records