Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0a5…0f5a sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$489 (-7%) realized −$463 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$786
other 35% −$815
world 1% −$37
crypto 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +12.6% +1.8% 40% 36% -10.9%
≤30d 84 +12.6% +1.8% 40% 36% -10.9%
≤90d 84 +12.6% +1.8% 40% 36% -10.9%
all 84 +12.6% +1.8% 40% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 36% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 36% -19.4%
15% -16.8% 32% -27.2%
20% -25.0% 27% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$39 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$463
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 104
History coverage6d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 67¢ 68¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 47¢ 44¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 46¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $92 −$10 -11%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Jun 21 $51 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $354 −$256 -72%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $46 +$44 +96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$24 +78%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $61 −$44 -72%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $31 +$52 +171%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $46 +$89 +194%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Aust Jun 20 $51 +$79 +155%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $172 +$111 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 +$169 +550%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $125 −$122 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Un Jun 19 $31 −$2 -7%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Aust Jun 19 $41 −$4 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $254 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? AND Czechia to score first vs. South Jun 19 $31 +$55 +180%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $401 +$19 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia Jun 18 $10 +$52 +504%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$114 +370%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$81 +263%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +224%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$36 +119%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 15¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $92 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: SELL 16¢ $49 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $102 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: BUY 15¢ $51 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06 BUY 20¢ $51 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $202 8h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $57 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 9h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 17¢ $98 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $253 12h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 60¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 17¢ $17 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $9 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.36 · official $524.36 · 207 history records