Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0a7…55e9 politics 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$4
sports 25% −$2
other 19% −$2
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 51 -4.2% -13.3% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage236d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $187 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $176 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $2 $0 -17%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $92 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $275 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 01 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $1 $0 -20%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 04 $2 $0 -24%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 04 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $76 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $89 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 19d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 25d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 103d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 103d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 104d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 104d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 106d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $87 106d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $87 114d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 121d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 125d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 130d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 143d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 143d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 145d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 145d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 146d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 147d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.49 · official $6.49 (match) · 214 history records