Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F0 0xf0a9…e1db sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$48 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$41
sports 39% +$25
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 40% -5.5%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 40% -5.5%
≤90d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 40% -5.5%
all 10 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 40% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -5.5%
10% -17.5% 40% -14.5%
15% -25.5% 40% -22.8%
20% -32.8% 30% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 27¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.50 · official $113.75 · 19 history records