Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0a9…b031 crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+4%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%67W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$111
14 days−$157
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$601
other 27% −$159
crypto 20% −$12
world 19% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +15.2% +4.2% 64% 64% +6.1%
≤30d 29 +7.7% -2.5% 55% 55% -10.5%
≤90d 127 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 50% -4.8%
all 127 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 50% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 50% -4.8%
10% -14.5% 44% -13.9%
15% -22.8% 38% -22.3%
20% -30.4% 31% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses67 / 60
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage70d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$5 +11%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 28 $85 −$80 -95%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $26 −$23 -88%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 $0 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 +$31 +62%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $32 +$23 +70%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $27 −$16 -59%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$27 +77%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $116 +$23 +20%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $33 +$28 +86%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 +$21 +58%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will F Jun 23 $52 +$66 +128%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to S Jun 20 $101 +$50 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $77 +$19 +24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on Jun 19 $42 −$14 -33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$20 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$25 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $56 +$40 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$45 -92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$25 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $262 −$185 -71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $202 −$100 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $51 −$26 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $51 +$134 +263%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $33 +$33 +97%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $25 +$58 +238%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Kent May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $152 +$22 +14%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $35 +$22 +62%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw? May 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $24 +$17 +73%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $30 +$36 +118%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $42 −$18 -42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $33 −$1 -3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $51 +$40 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 13 $61 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $301 +$29 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY 43¢ $53 2h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders $4 2h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 79¢ $85 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL $3 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY 36¢ $26 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 73¢ $30 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 69¢ $50 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 61¢ $49 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $32 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $27 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 56¢ $35 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $116 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 62¢ $36 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will F BUY 43¢ $52 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to S BUY 66¢ $101 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 62¢ $46 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $77 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on SELL 15¢ $28 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on BUY 21¢ $42 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $71 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $46 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $96 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records