Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0aa…d9ac world 41 markets active 17h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-11%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
other 25% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
sports 4% +$4
tech 2% −$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -32.6% -39.0% 12% 12% -39.0%
≤90d 39 -1.9% -11.3% 21% 18% -21.2%
all 40 -0.9% -10.3% 22% 20% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 20% -20.2%
10% -18.9% 15% -27.8%
15% -26.8% 15% -34.8%
20% -33.9% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $2 +$3 +158%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -33%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 12 $1 $0 -23%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $1 +$9 +900%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $1 $0 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 04 $3 −$3 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 01 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Apr 30 $1 +$5 +438%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 28 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $1 +$2 +175%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -72%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $3 −$2 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 16 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 15 $1 $0 -39%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, Apr 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $0 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No $1 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 13¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 32d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? SELL Yes $0 33d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 34d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes $1 36d
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? BUY Yes $1 36d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $1 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes $1 38d
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? BUY Yes $1 38d
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? BUY Yes $1 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL No 12¢ $1 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 88 history records