Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0aa…09ae crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$35 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%99W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$12
politics 20% −$4
other 17% −$10
sports 9% −$53
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -9.4% -18.0% 64% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 118 -5.1% -14.1% 58% 8% -9.7%
all 181 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -25.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -32.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -39.5% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses99 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage139d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 22 above $630? No 100¢ 93¢ $118 $109 −$9 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 12 $8 +$5 +67%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 31 $89 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 28 $101 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $118 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $7 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $125 $0 +0%
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 26 $124 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $124 $0 +0%
Aquila Basket Trento vs. Virtus Bologna May 25 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $120 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Meta (META) close at <$570 on the final day of trading of the wee May 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $128 $0 +0%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $132 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $132 $0 -0%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Fiona Ferro vs Danka Kovinic May 19 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $131 $0 +0%
Will Norway be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $132 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $131 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Conten May 14 $3 +$3 +88%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 13 $124 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $124 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $124 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 22 above $630? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $82 26d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY RUSTEC 59¢ $8 26d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $89 26d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $89 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 27d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Aoriqileng 23¢ $2 27d
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $91 27d
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $91 27d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $89 28d
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $12 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $101 29d
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $101 29d
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $101 29d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 38¢ $3 29d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 30d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 30d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 30d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 46¢ $7 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 30d
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $124 30d
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $124 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $114 33d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 33d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.41 · official $109.41 (match) · 348 history records