Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf0af…09a3 crypto 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+0%) realized +$151 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%220W / 13L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$131
14 days−$101
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$200
tech 8% +$5
economics 1% +$22
other 0% −$98
politics 0% +$8
sports 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -65.5% -68.8% 33% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 32 -24.4% -31.6% 75% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -10.6% -19.1% 88% 0% -9.5%
all 233 -2.9% -12.2% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,145) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$1,020
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses220 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 238
History coverage555d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,022 $1,020 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,019 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,012 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,007 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,005 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Tunisia vs. Jap Jun 20 $2 −$2 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,156 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,149 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,145 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,138 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,132 +$6 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,129 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,126 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,124 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,117 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,116 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,114 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,109 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,108 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,104 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,102 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,099 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $1,097 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $1,094 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $1,089 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,089 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $1,088 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $1,084 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $1,082 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 14 $1,080 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $1,079 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $1,078 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $1,077 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,076 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $1,075 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,074 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $1,070 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,066 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,072 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,065 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $1,264 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,019 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,012 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $1,007 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,005 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 7¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,019.95 · official $1,019.95 (match) · 770 history records