Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0b1…e789 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,132 (+12%) realized +$5,288 · open −$156
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 48L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$552est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,673
7 days+$6,171
14 days+$6,583
30 days+$7,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$3,596
other 18% +$2,518
crypto 1% +$744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +20.3% +8.9% 63% 63% +23.2%
≤30d 99 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 52% +5.1%
≤90d 99 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 52% +5.1%
all 99 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 52% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 52% +5.1%
10% -12.8% 51% -5.0%
15% -21.2% 48% -14.2%
20% -29.0% 44% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$436 vs −$324 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$5,288
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$552
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage18d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 35¢ $500 $344 −$156 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,216 +$983 +81%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $1,321 +$322 +24%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $305 +$347 +114%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $305 +$445 +146%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $508 −$370 -73%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $505 +$264 +52%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $304 +$296 +97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $304 +$213 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $609 −$300 -49%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $305 −$300 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $305 −$300 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $305 −$300 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $505 +$268 +53%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $103 +$51 +50%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $508 −$500 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $305 +$426 +139%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,013 +$694 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -98%
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 26 $304 +$205 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $506 −$20 -4%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $304 +$50 +16%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $304 +$222 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $709 +$518 +73%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $508 +$512 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $508 −$500 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $709 +$562 +79%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $306 −$297 -97%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $505 +$263 +52%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $203 +$205 +101%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $507 +$419 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $509 +$841 +165%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $51 −$1 -2%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $507 +$446 +88%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $506 +$313 +62%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $305 +$426 +139%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $507 +$472 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $103 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $305 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $507 −$500 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $204 −$50 -25%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $305 −$286 -94%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$39 -76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$459 +46%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $305 −$304 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,200 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $608 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $480 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $608 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $138 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $305 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $305 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $305 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $275 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $304 3d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $305 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $305 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $304 3d
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $773 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 22¢ $153 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $731 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,706 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.61 · official $407.43 · 184 history records