Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0b3…27d8 crypto 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-17%) realized −$264 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%33W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day80.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$104
crypto 27% −$94
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -50.1% -54.9% 14% 14% -29.0%
≤30d 236 -50.1% -54.9% 14% 14% -29.0%
≤90d 236 -50.1% -54.9% 14% 14% -29.0%
all 236 -50.1% -54.9% 14% 14% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.9% 14% -29.0%
10% ← realistic here -59.2% 13% -35.8%
15% -63.1% 13% -42.0%
20% -66.7% 12% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses33 / 203
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)236 / 242
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day80.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Johannus Monday 1¢ 36¢ $1 $35 +$34 (+3450%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 2¢ 50¢ $1 $29 +$28 (+2831%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Lorenzo Giustino 50¢ 16¢ $75 $23 −$52 (-69%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kwon Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 0¢ 16¢ $0 $23 +$23 (+15400%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Alex Bolt 50¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 13¢ 50¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+281%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $150 −$2 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 $0 -1%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $8 $0 -1%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $170 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Jiang/Xu vs Mihalikova/Nicholls Jun 22 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Bucharest: Diana-Ioana Simionescu vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt SELL Oliver Tarvet 99¢ $20 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Johannus Monday 1¢ $1 18m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Johannus Monday 1¢ $0 22m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Johannus Monday 1¢ $0 23m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin SELL Gauthier Onclin 100¢ $150 32m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 0¢ $0 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Yu-Hsiou Hsu 1¢ $1 46m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto SELL Rei Sakamoto 99¢ $148 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $50 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 99¢ $8 11h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $169 11h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Jiang/Xu vs Mihalikova/Nicholls SELL Jiang/Xu 3¢ $0 11h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Jiang/Xu vs Mihalikova/Nicholls SELL Mihalikova/Nicholls 96¢ $8 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 32h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 32h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.81 · official $125.81 (match) · 743 history records