Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:55:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf0b3…145d sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-6%) realized −$144 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 60% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 60% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 60% -9.1%
all 10 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 60% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 60% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 60% -17.8%
15% -23.9% 60% -25.8%
20% -31.4% 40% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$94 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Xiyu Wang 72¢ 72¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto Rei Sakamoto 70¢ 88¢ $90 $112 +$22 (+25%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Gabriel Diallo 42¢ 40¢ $110 $104 −$6 (-6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Vilius Gaubas 22¢ 46¢ $45 $95 +$50 (+111%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 38¢ 54¢ $55 $78 +$23 (+42%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jack Pinnington Jones 18¢ 16¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Irina-Camelia Begu 15¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen Jun 24 $126 +$52 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $86 +$71 +82%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $90 +$127 +140%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $56 −$55 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $176 −$176 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $91 −$91 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $91 +$54 +59%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Jun 24 $76 +$45 +59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 24 $71 +$33 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 29¢ $36 21m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 22¢ $46 30m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Rei Sakamoto 70¢ $91 46m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 18¢ $36 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 38¢ $56 50m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 15¢ $31 52m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Xiyu Wang 72¢ $121 53m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 53¢ $76 53m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $178 54m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 100¢ $157 54m
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $217 54m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon BUY Pol Martin Tiffon 38¢ $56 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 55¢ $56 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $40 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $145 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 32¢ $50 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $121 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $91 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Tatjana Maria 68¢ $71 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 78¢ $176 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 70¢ $126 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 70¢ $91 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 54¢ $86 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 62¢ $76 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.41 · official $541.41 (match) · 29 history records